World Population Nearing 6 Billion Projected
Close to 9 Billion by 2050
Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs
At mid-1998, world population stood at 5.9 billion. It is expected that the
world population will reach the 6 billion mark in 1999. Between 1995 and 2000 the world
population is growing at 1.33 per cent per year, adding an average of 78 million persons
each year. In the mid 21st century world population will be in the range of 7.3 to 10.7
billion, depending on the assumed future fertility trends. In the medium variant, the
world population reaches 8.9 billion in 2050 (figure I).
Figure I. World population size: past estimates and medium-, high- and
low fertility variants, 1950-2050 (billions)
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998
Revision, forthcoming. |
These figures are from the recently
released 1998 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and
projections, prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social
Affairs. This Revision presents population data from 1950 to 2050 for 228 countries and
areas of the world, from Pitcairn with 46 persons to China with 1.3 billion.
The mid-1998 world population stood at 5,901 million, with 4,719 million (80 per
cent) in the less developed regions and 1,182 million (20 per cent) in the more developed
regions. Asia accounted for 3,585 million, i.e. 61 per cent of the world total. During the
last two years, Africa's population (749 million in 1998) became larger than Europe's (729
million). The population of Latin America and the Caribbean is estimated at 504 million,
and that of Northern America at 305 million.
The world population is growing at 1.33 per cent per year between 1995 and 2000,
which is significantly less than the peak growth rate of 2.04 per cent in 1965-1970, and
less than the rate of 1.46 per cent in 1990-1995. The annual population increment also
declined from its peak of 86 million in 1985-1990 to the current 78 million. It will
further decline gradually to 64 million in 2015-2020, and then sharply to 30 million in
2045-2050.
In the medium-fertility variant, it is projected that the annual population
growth rate will continue declining from 1.33 per cent in 1995-2000 to 0.34 per cent in
2045-2050. From 1804, when the world passed the 1 billion mark, it took 123 years to reach
2 billion people in 1927, 33 years to attain 3 billion in 1960, 14 years to reach 4
billion in 1974, 13 years to attain 5 billion in 1987 and 12 years to reach 6 billion in
1999. It will take 14 years to reach 7 billion in 2013, 15 years to reach 8 billion in
2028, and, with the slowing down of population growth, it will take 26 years to reach 9
billion, in 2054.
According to the high-fertility variant, the annual population growth rate will
decrease more slowly, reaching 0.87 per cent per year in 2045-2050. The low-fertility
variant results in a rapid decline of annual rate of population change, to a negative
value of -0.23 per cent per year in the middle of 21st century. The population in 2050
will be 10.7 billion according to the high variant and 7.3 billion according to the low
variant.
Ninety-seven per cent of the world population increase takes place in the less
developed regions. Every year the population of Asia is increasing by 50 million, the
population of Africa by 17 million, and that of Latin America and the Caribbean by nearly
8 million. Africa has the highest growth rate among all major areas (2.36 per cent).
Middle Africa, Eastern Africa and Western Africa have growth rates of 2.5 per cent and
over. Europe, on the other hand, has the lowest growth rate (0.03 per cent), with a
negative rate of -0.2 per cent in Eastern Europe.
Sixty per cent of the world population increase is contributed by only 10
countries, with 21 per cent contributed by India and 15 per cent by China (table 1).
Table 1. Top ten contributors to world population growth, 1995-2000
(net annual additions in thousands)
| No. |
Country |
Net addition |
Per cent |
Cumulative
per cent |
| 1 |
India |
15,999 |
20.6 |
20.6 |
| 2 |
China |
11,408 |
14.7 |
35.3 |
| 3 |
Pakistan |
4,048 |
5.2 |
40.5 |
| 4 |
Indonesia |
2,929 |
3.8 |
44.2 |
| 5 |
Nigeria |
2,511 |
3.2 |
47.5 |
| 6 |
United States of America |
2,267 |
2.9 |
50.4 |
| 7 |
Brazil |
2,154 |
2.8 |
53.1 |
| 8 |
Bangladesh |
2,108 |
2.7 |
55.9 |
| 9 |
Mexico |
1,547 |
2.0 |
57.9 |
| 10 |
Philippines |
1,522 |
2.0 |
59.8 |
|
Sub-total |
46,494 |
59.8 |
59.8 |
|
World total |
77,738 |
100 |
100 |
|
Source: United Nations Population Division,
World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision, forthcoming.
Currently 2 out of 5 people in the world live in either China (1,256 million) or
India (982 million). There are eight other countries with a population over 100 million:
the United States of America, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Russian Federation, Japan,
Bangladesh and Nigeria. According to the medium-fertility variant projection, by the year
2050 eight additional countries will have exceeded the 100 million mark: Ethiopia, the
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mexico, Philippines, Viet Nam, Iran, Egypt and Turkey.
The ranking will be somewhat different; India will then be the most populated country
(1,529 million) followed by China (1,478 million), the United States of America (349
million) and Pakistan (346 million).
Table 2. Countries with a population of over 100 million,
1998 and 2050
(population in millions, medium variant) |
| 1998 |
| 1 |
China |
1,256 |
| 2 |
India |
982 |
| 3 |
United States |
274 |
| 4 |
Indonesia |
206 |
| 5 |
Brazil |
166 |
| 6 |
Pakistan |
148 |
| 7 |
Russian Federation |
147 |
| 8 |
Japan |
126 |
| 9 |
Bangladesh |
125 |
| 10 |
Nigeria |
106 |
|
| 2050 |
| 1 |
India |
1,529 |
| 2 |
China |
1,478 |
| 3 |
United States |
349 |
| 4 |
Pakistan |
346 |
| 5 |
Indonesia |
312 |
| 6 |
Nigeria |
244 |
| 7 |
Brazil |
244 |
| 8 |
Bangladesh |
213 |
| 9 |
Ethiopia |
170 |
| 10 |
Democratic Republic
of the Congo |
160 |
| 11 |
Mexico |
147 |
| 12 |
Philippines |
131 |
| 13 |
Viet Nam |
127 |
| 14 |
Russian Federation |
122 |
| 15 |
Iran |
115 |
| 16 |
Egypt |
115 |
| 17 |
Japan |
105 |
| 18 |
Turkey |
101 |
|
| Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population
Prospects: The 1998 Revision, forthcoming. |
According to the medium variant, by 2045-2050, 56 countries will
experience a negative population growth, including all European countries, Japan and
China. The population of the more developed regions as a group is expected to reach a peak
of 1,617 million in 2020, then it will start a gradual decline and by 2050 will be 2 per
cent smaller than in 1998. By contrast, the population of the less developed regions will
increase by 64 per cent, from 4,719 million in 1998 to 7,754 million in 2050. The fastest
population growth will take place in Africa: its population will more then double during
the first half of the 21st century; and Africa's share in the world population growth will
increase from the current 22 per cent to 55 per cent in 2045-2050.
Different demographic growth rates lead to a redistribution of the world
population among major geographic areas and groups of countries. While in 1950, Europe and
Northern America accounted for 28.5 per cent of the world population, their share of the
world total decreased to 17.5 in 1998, and it will further decline to 11.5 per cent in
2050. Conversely, the world population share of Africa increased from 8.8 per cent in 1950
to 12.7 per cent in 1988 and is projected to reach 19.8 per cent in 2050. The shares of
Asia and Latin America are relatively more stable at approximately 60 and 10 per cent,
respectively. All projection variants yield similar results with respect to the
distribution of the world population.
Table 3. Population of the major regions of the world, 1950, 1998 and
2050
(Population in millions, medium variant)
| |
1950 |
1998 |
2050 |
| World |
2,521 |
5,901 |
8,909 |
| More developed regions |
813 |
1,182 |
1,155 |
| Less developed regions |
1,709 |
4,719 |
7,754 |
| Africa |
221 |
749 |
1,766 |
| Asia |
1,402 |
3,585 |
5,268 |
| Europe |
547 |
729 |
628 |
| Latin America and the Caribbean |
167 |
504 |
809 |
| Northern America |
172 |
305 |
392 |
| Oceania |
13 |
30 |
46 |
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects:
The 1998 Revision, forthcoming. |
The United Nations Population Division considered the demographic
impact of AIDS in 34 countries with a population of at least 1 million and an adult HIV
prevalence of 2 per cent or more, or with very large infected adult populations. Among
these countries, 29 are in Sub-Sahara Africa, three are in Asia (Cambodia, India and
Thailand) and two in Latin America and the Caribbean (Brazil and Haiti). Of the 30 million
persons currently infected by HIV in the world, 26 million (85 per cent) reside in these
34 countries.
The 1998 Revision shows a devastating toll from AIDS with respect to mortality
and population loss. In the 29 African countries in which the impact of AIDS was studied,
life expectancy at birth is projected to decrease to 47 years in 1995-2000 whereas it
would have expected to have reached 54 years, in the absence of the AIDS epidemic, a loss
of 7 years. The demographic impact of AIDS is even more dramatic when one focuses on the
hardest hit countries, for example the 9 countries with an adult HIV prevalence of 10 per
cent or more: Botswana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Zambia
and Zimbabwe. In these countries the average life expectancy at birth is estimated to
reach 48 years in 1995-2000 whereas it would have been expected to reach 58 years in the
absence of AIDS, a loss of 10 years. By 2010-2015, the average life expectancy at birth in
these countries is projected to reach only 47 years, instead of 64 years in the absence of
AIDS: 17 years of life expectancy lost to AIDS.
Even in the worst cases, the toll of AIDS is not expected to lead to declines of
population, because fertility in these countries is high. In the hardest-hit country,
Botswana, with an adult HIV/AIDS prevalence of 25 per cent, the population in 2025 is
expected to be 23 per cent smaller than what it would have been in the absence of AIDS.
Nevertheless, the population is still expected to nearly double between 1995 and 2050.
According to the 1998 Revision, 61 countries of the world exhibit a total
fertility rate (TFR) in 1995-2000 at or below the level of 2.1 children per woman, which
is the level necessary for the replacement of generations. The combined population of
those 61 countries (2.6 billion in 1998) amounts to 44 per cent of the global population.
In practically all countries of the more developed regions, fertility is
currently significantly below 2.1. In 20 of these countries the TFR has stayed at
below-replacement level for more than two decades. In the 1980s-1990s fertility has
decreased to levels below replacement in several countries from the less developed
regions, including all countries in the populous region of Eastern Asia (except Mongolia).
Consequently, in its medium variant, the 1998 Revision assumes that fertility in these
countries will not return to replacement level within the time horizon of the projections,
i.e. until 2050.
The 1998 Revision for the first time presents estimated and projected numbers of
octogenarians, nonagenarians and centenarians, for all countries of the world. In 1998, 66
million persons were aged 80 or over, that is, about 1 of every 100 persons. That
proportion was 5 times higher in the more developed regions than in the less developed
regions (3.0 versus 0.6 per cent). Among them, 6.4 million were aged 90 years or over, and
about 135 thousand are estimated to be aged 100 or over. The population aged 80 or over is
projected to increase almost 6-fold and reach 370 million in 2050. The number of
centenarians is projected to increase 16-fold to reach 2.2 million.
As a result of the combined effects of the decrease in fertility and the
increase in life expectancy, the population of the world is becoming older, with a
diminishing proportion of children, aged less than 15 years, and an increase of older
persons, aged 60 or over. Overall in the world there are still three times as many
children (30 per cent) as older persons (10 per cent).
However, in the more developed regions, in 1998 the number of older persons
exceeded that of children for the first time. Italy has the oldest population, with 60 per
cent more older persons than children. Greece, Japan, Spain and Germany have between 50
per cent and 40 per cent more older persons than children. By the year 2050, in the medium
variant, in the more developed regions there will be more than twice as many older persons
as children (figure II).
Figure II. Proportion of total population aged 0-14 and 60 and over,
more and less developed regions, 1950-2050 (medium variant projections)
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998
Revision, forthcoming. |
In the less developed regions, the proportion of older persons
will increase from 8 to 21 per cent between 1998 and 2050, while that of children will
decrease from 33 to 20 per cent. For the world as a whole, the proportion aged 60 or over
will increase from the current 10 per cent to 22 per cent in 2050, while the proportion
aged less than 15 will decrease from 30 per cent to 20 per cent. By the year 2050, there
will be more older persons than children in the world.
(Return to United Nations 1998
Revision World Population Estimates and Projections Table of Contents)
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