Busy Hurricane Season Predicted
By JANELLE CARTER - AP
August 1999
WASHINGTON (AP) - People shouldn't be fooled by this year's slow start to
hurricane season, government scientists say. With the peak period about to begin,
meteorologists are predicting more storms than usual.
Scientists say three or more intense Atlantic storms are possible, and residents
living along the East and Gulf coasts should remain prepared.
Last year's hurricane season produced 14 tropical storms, including three major
hurricanes. In a typical season, the United States experiences five to six hurricanes, two
of which are severe and an average of 1.5 storms make landfall.
``Just because we haven't seen a hurricane yet this year, don't get fooled into
thinking that this will be a light season'', said Gerald Bell, a research meteorologist at
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center.
Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but tropical storms
don't really rev up until mid-August. The peak period runs from mid-August to mid-October.
The season is expected to be busy due to atmospheric conditions globally that
contribute to hurricanes, said CPC meteorologist Vernon Kousky. Among those conditions are
a low wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and below-average air pressure across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
``The odds are tilted in the favor of more storms than normal,'' said Kousky.
Hurricane expert William Gray of Colorado State University has gone a step
further, predicting 14 named tropical storms, nine hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.
Gray figures there is a 54 percent chance that one or more intense storms with wind speeds
of 111 miles per hour or more will hit the East Coast and a 40 percent chance for the Gulf
Coast.
So far this season, there has been one tropical storm, Arlene, in June.
A tropical storm carries winds of 39 to 73 mph. A tropical storm becomes a
hurricane when sustained winds reach 74 mph.
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