Navy report predicts widespread Y2K failures for many cities

Posted at 2:10 a.m. PDT Friday, August 20, 1999

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A U.S. military report predicts widespread ``probable'' or ``likely'' failures in important power and water systems for many of the nation's cities because of the Year 2000 technology problem, a far more dire assessment than anything the White House has made. But President Clinton's top Y2K adviser, John Koskinen, called the conclusions overly pessimistic in the study by Navy and Marine Corps base commanders worldwide. He said the military was assuming that major utilities would fail unless proved otherwise.

The most recent version of the study, updated less than two weeks ago, predicted ``probable'' or ``likely'' partial failures in electric utilities that serve nearly 60 of roughly 400 Navy and Marine Corps facilities.

The study predicted ``likely'' partial electrical failures, for example, at the new year at bases and offices in Orlando, Fla.; Gulfport, Miss.; Fort Lauderdale, Fla.; and nine other small- to mid-size cities.

It also predicted ``probable'' partial water system failures in Dallas; Nashville, Tenn.; Houston; Baton Rouge, La.; Montgomery, Ala.; Tulsa, Okla.; and 59 other cities.

The study forecast likely partial natural gas failures -- in the middle of winter -- in Nashville; Albany, N.Y.; Columbus, Ohio; Fort Worth, Texas; Pensacola, Fla.; and Charleston, S.C.

The military report contrasts sharply with predictions from the White House, which said in its own report just weeks ago that national electrical failures are ``highly unlikely.'' The White House report also said disruptions in water service from the date rollover were ``increasingly unlikely.''

Koskinen, who vouched for the authenticity of the Navy report, noted nevertheless that all its worst-case predictions for failures were marked as ``interim'' or ``partial'' assessments.

``It's not nearly as interesting as the world coming to an end,'' said Koskinen. ``The way they worked was, until you have information for contingency planning purposes, you ought to assume there was a problem.''

The Year 2000 problem may occur because some computer programs, especially older ones, might fail when the date changes to 2000. Because the programs were written to recognize only the last two digits of a year, such programs could read the digits ``00'' as 1900, potentially causing problems with financial transactions, airline schedules and electrical grids.

The Navy report was first summarized this week on an Internet site run by Jim Lord, a Y2K author, who said he obtained it ``from a confidential source of the highest reliability and integrity.''

``The military has to work from the worst case, but so do we,'' Lord told The Associated Press on Thursday. ``It's reprehensible for them to know this and keep it from us.''

Koskinen said the Navy wasn't withholding information from anyone, noting that the continually updated report was available until recently on a Web site maintained by the Defense Department.

``The last people in the world the department is going to keep information from is their own people,'' Koskinen said. ``In fact, the whole purpose of the exercise is to make sure they can provide appropriate information to servicemen on their bases and their families.''

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