A New Baby Boom Approaches

By Mark R. Howard

EDITOR'S PAGE - JUNE 1998 ISSUE
Florida Trend Archives

As Florida has gone about cultivating an image as a tropical sandbox for aging retirees, it has ignored a demographic reality: It's starting to be dominated by children. It's true that the fastest-growing segment of Florida's population for 20 years has been the very old: those 85 and older. That age group grew by more than 75% between 1980 and 1990, will grow another 59% between 1990 and 2000, and is expected to increase by more than 40% by 2010.

But something else has happened that has drawn much less attention - yet has potentially greater impact on what kind of Florida we'll live in during the new century's first decade. The second fastest-growing group between 1980 and 1990 was the very young: children under 4. Growth in that group leveled out in the 1990s, but kids under 4 will still outnumber the very old by two to one in 2010. And overall, the demographic bulge represented by children and teenagers is already a majority: While seniors continue to dominate the state's image, the numerical fact is that there are more Floridians under 18 than over 60; by 2010, there will be a half-million more young people (0-19) than there are now.

If that's an alarming proposition given the overcrowding in the state's schools and universities and Florida's shameful record on providing for its children, it should be. The state consistently ranks in the bottom four of the worst states in which to be a child. And with one in five children living in poverty, and one in three births occurring out-of-wedlock, the coming Baby Boom isn't exactly dressed for success. Lest we forget, 4-year-olds come neither with stock portfolios nor, unlike those over 60, health insurance courtesy of the federal government.

How will we meet the demands those extra half-million kids will be putting on schools, detention centers, jails, healthcare facilities and human resource agencies in the next decade?

Part of the answer is we won't, and there will be no shortage of horror stories as grist for the daily news mill in the coming years. Another part is that the state Legislature is perhaps the wrong place to look for solutions: Remember that our distinguished lawmakers, during a session this year in which they were comparatively flush with cash, couldn't even find enough to pay for textbooks for all the state's children. Anyway, a statewide, one-size-fits-all-counties response isn't always the best answer in a state as large and diverse as Florida.

Unfortunately, private philanthropy isn't likely to take up the slack, unless there's some sort of enormous sea change among the state's foundations, companies and their employees. One indicator: Per capita United Way giving in Florida lags that of many states, and isn't likely to skyrocket as home-grown businesses like Barnett are bought out and long-term corporate leaders like Knight Ridder flee. One observer even speculated that donations to political candidates this year will exceed those given to United Way.

But if there's a bright spot in all the demographic gloom, it's that - wonder of wonders - Florida actually has some progressive statewide infrastructure in place that counties can use to help children. State law allows each county's voters to choose whether to establish a special taxing district called a Children's Service Council. The districts are unique to Florida and have the benefit of being locally focused, children-focused - and discretionary. The first was created in 1946 when Pinellas County legislators got a local bill passed in the Legislature that let voters in the county choose whether to establish a taxing district - modeled on mosquito control districts, of all things - that could make levies to fund only programs for children and families. Voters approved the district, which is called the Juvenile Welfare Board (JWB) in Pinellas, overwhelmingly - 80% voted yes. And in 1990, 67% voted to increase the district's taxing authority to a full mill.

Pinellas' JWB, governed by five citizens appointed by the governor, the superintendent of schools, a county commissioner and the county's juvenile court judge, distributes the money it collects - about $30.2 million in 1997 - among local government and nonprofit groups in the county that provide services to children and families. The board has been able to fund innovative programs that have given Pinellas County some of the leading healthy family programs in the country. Because the dollars are raised locally, they don't come with state bureaucratic strings attached. "We're getting fantastic results, and we're far ahead of what the state is able to do,'' says Jim Mills, executive director of the Juvenile Welfare Board. "It also gives our programs staying power; if it's working, we don't have to change it'' if political fashion changes in Tallahassee.

A state law in 1986 gave all Florida counties the option for creating such taxing districts for children, capping a district's taxing authority at half a mill. Since then, voters in five counties have voted to create districts like Pinellas' - Palm Beach, Martin, Okeechobee, St. Lucie and Hillsborough. Eight more have voted against the idea, but some of those counties have designated funding for children built into their county commission budgets.

Interestingly, the conventional wisdom about seniors and conservatives not supporting social spending for children hasn't always held true: In Palm Beach County, which established a Children's Services Council in 1986, seniors voted overwhelmingly in favor of the proposal. And in conservative Pinellas County, "you don't get a 67% yes vote to increase taxes unless you scratch a lot of silver heads and Republicans,'' says Mills.

Taxing districts for kids' programs alone won't save the day; the size of the coming kids crisis is too big. But time after time, citizens across the country have shown they can get beyond a knee-jerk revulsion against new taxes - if they are confident that the money will be spent accountably and effectively to meet a real need. And the special districts may be a tool for many counties to consider at a time when, otherwise, the tool kit looks pretty bare.

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