Coming to Russia's Rescue
"A collapse would cause grave security problems for the West" - BY
MORTIMER B. ZUCKERMAN / EDITOR-IN-CHIEF U.S. News
For 40 years after World War II we were worried about the
rising power of the Soviet Union. Now we have to worry just as much about the collapsing
power of Russia. The source of the anxiety is much the same but paradoxical. In the first
period we worried that Russians might use their weapons of mass destruction. Now we should
worry that they might lose them.
The country is not just bankrupt. As I wrote in this week's World section, Russia is in
an economic free fall that threatens the coherence of the central state and the ability of
the government to control its arsenal of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. Any
time now they might become black-market items for rogue buyers. Prime Minister Yevgeni
Primakov acknowledged to me that Russia cannot prevent its hard-pressed scientists from
selling advice to Iran or Iraq. And if the state disintegrates altogether, we could face
the apocalyptic scenario of ultranationalists or some other faction challenging the
command and control of nuclear weapons spread over 39 different Russian districts.
Where once the state was too strong, it is now so weak that it cannot even
collect taxes. Poverty, crime, and inflation are rampant. What was a decade or so ago a
self-contained, self-supporting economy, possessing vast reserves of gold, has become an
economy completely dependent on foreign aid. Virtually overnight this once proud
superpower has lost its name, its flag, its unifying ideology, and half of its
territories.
Cash infusion...
It is critical to our interests that Russia survive its economic, political, and
psychological ordeal. The West, and especially the Clinton administration, bears some of
the blame for encouraging the reckless rush from communism to raw capitalism.
The United States, the International Monetary Fund, Germany, and other countries
have already pumped more than $150 billion into Russia. No one can say where this
fantastic sum has gone, but for every dollar that has been extended by the West, Russians
have deposited at least as much in foreign banks. So far, foreign money has helped
postpone reform rather than hasten it.
Primakov promises more vigor and vigilance and may well deliver. With debts of
$17.5 billion coming due in 1999, and with annual government revenues of only $24 billion,
he protests the rejection of his request for more help while the IMF gives billions to
Brazil, South Korea, and Indonesia. But financial management in Russia before Primakov was
appalling. The most recent infusion of $4.8 billion from the IMF barely touched ground
before it ended up in foreign bank accounts–for the benefit of the oligarchs who
virtually own the country.
Relief is nonetheless justified...
The stakes are too high. But how can it be given without feeding corruption?
Direct supplies of food and medicine should be extended for humanitarian reasons. No money
should go to support the currency or the banks. The IMF cannot be expected to advance more
money; its credibility as a lender has been hurt enough by the way Russia has flouted the
conditions attached to its loans. Aid to the government must be tied to economic and
political reforms and earmarked for projects that can be monitored. The best course might
be to encourage private companies to take up specific ventures, with some substantial
portion of their investments to be guaranteed by the U.S. government and conditioned on
the appropriate legal and management structures within Russia. The private sector keeps
better track of money than the government does.
If Russia wants this, or more, it must establish a political modus vivendi with
the West and not challenge our strategic interests. It must get tougher with anyone who
helps Iran, Iraq, or Libya; Primakov himself must limit his longtime support for Saddam
Hussein. It must come down hard on any scientist who helps rogue countries. And Russia
could gain much if it drastically reduced its vast and unnecessary nuclear arsenal.
But the touchstone of any policy must be this: Russia is a tragedy on the way to
a catastrophe that could envelop us all.
