Freedom from want?
IF YOU look at the past 100 years in the 40-50 countries that are now considered
rich, what trend do you see? Bradford De Long, a professor at the University of California
at Berkeley, describes it in the title of his forthcoming book on the 20th century as
“Slouching towards Utopia”. Slouching, because despite huge material and
scientific progress, people are grudging about it all. Utopia, not because perfection has
been reached or is attainable, but because the state of wealth and knowledge in 1999 would
have more than satisfied the Utopias envisaged by many previous crystal-gazers and
proselytizers. Consider what has happened:
• Farming, forestry and fishing, which for centuries had meant hard
labor,
in 1913 accounted for 28% of employment in America, 41% in France and 60% in Japan, though
only 12% in Britain. Now, mechanized farming and new technology have hugely increased food
production, yet the proportion of the workforce employed in these arduous activities has
dropped below 6% in all those countries.
• Services, seen today as a modern sector of the economy, in some countries
already accounted for a larger share of jobs in 1913 than did farming: 43% in America and
44% in Britain, though only 27% in France and 22% in Japan. Now the figures range from 60%
in Japan to about 75% in America. But the nature of those services has changed. A century
ago, most of them involved a direct personal service: being a servant, in other words.
Now, most are indirect and concerned with information: education, accountancy, government,
communication and so on.
So the rich today have far less direct command over people—fewer servants,
fewer exclusive services—even though they have far more command over things.
Household tasks have become increasingly mechanized, through washing machines, vacuum
cleaners, dishwashers and so on, and food production more industrialized, reducing the
time devoted to cooking at home. That means far fewer women are employed as cooks and
maids, but many more are able to go out to work.
• Mass laboring in the fields was replaced by mass
laboring in the
factory, and with it employment by new, large corporations, amid mass
urbanization and at
times mass unemployment, a new concept. This accelerated a change already under way in the
19th century. But industry changed, too: production that had involved a lot of craft
skills was replaced by machine tools and routine assembly work. Early cars were made by
craftsmen, and each one was slightly different. Beginning in the 1920s in America, though
much later in Western Europe and Japan, products and processes became
standardized.
• Workers started to be treated as interchangeable, albeit trained, units,
organized more or less scientifically to make processes more efficient. That was true for
several decades in American capitalism, German Nazism and Soviet communism alike. But
whereas in Germany and Russia production was celebrated and wages and consumption were
suppressed, in America and the rest of Europe consumption was king. As the century wore
on, more and more people were employed for their technical, literary and professional
skills, as “white-collar” workers. Employment in non-profit
organizations—charities, private hospitals—also began to rise, providing nearly
8% of all jobs in America in 1995, 6% in Britain and over 12% in the Netherlands.
• Mass consumption gave rise to mass advertising, through the new
mass-communication outlets of radio and television, as products were sold with more
emphasis on style, image and brand. Vance Packard complained in a 1957 book that
advertisers were “hidden persuaders”, manipulating minds and denying free will.
But people went on buying, and advertisers went on trying to work out why.
• Throughout the century, “knowledge”—i.e.,
brainpower—was increasingly taking over from manpower, horsepower and material power.
Norman Angell, a British socialist, pointed this out in “The Great Illusion” in
1910; Peter Drucker, by then a management guru, wrote a book about it in 1967; Tony Blair
and Bill Clinton caught on in the late 1990s.
• Mass employment in mass production led to the creation of mass trade
unions and the securing of mass labor rights. By 1930, 6.8% of workers in America and
25.3% in Britain belonged to a trade union. By 1950, the numbers had risen steeply to
22.3% and 39.9% respectively. By 1996-97, as employment had shifted away from mass
production and unions were felt to have become less effective at increasing most
people’s bargaining power or job security, union membership had declined sharply, to
14.1% and 30.1% respectively.
• America led in virtually everything: growth, productivity and incomes,
new products and new processes, applying new ideas first or most effectively even if it
did not invent them. Early in the century, it received a big influx of migrants from
Europe. By the end of the century it was virtually alone among the rich countries in still
permitting substantial immigration, although by now most of its migrants were from Asia
and Latin America.
• Inequality diminished sharply, thanks to mass education, higher wages,
progressive taxation and the increasing value, particularly for the poor, of public
services and job protection. War broke some social barriers and taboos, but education made
the biggest difference. Some countries—Germany, Japan—became more equal than
others, such as Britain but especially the United States. In the past 20 years inequality
has begun to increase again.
• Government spending as a share of GDP in 1913 ranged from 1.8% in
America, 6.3% in Sweden, 8.3% in Japan, 12.7% in Britain and 14.8% in Germany to 17% in
France. Now it ranges from 34% in America and 54% in France to 65% in Sweden, requiring
levels of taxation that would have caused riots in 1900. Health care and education were
two growth areas, but the biggest slice went to transfers and subsidies—the taxing of
one person to hand the money to another, who would not always be poorer.
• Spending on leisure—which is hard to define, but includes travel,
entertainment and holidays—was also a new thing. It grew from 2-3% of GDP in America
in the early 1900s to roughly 10% now. Where at the turn of the century a Briton worked
for 2,700 hours a year, by the 1990s people in rich countries generally put in only around
1,400-1,800 a year. Paid holidays became the norm, ranging from two to three weeks a year
in America and Japan to six weeks a year in Germany. Beginning in the 1960s and 1970s,
ordinary people joined the jet-set.
Happily on holiday?
Of this list of change and plenty, that last point is especially worth dwelling
upon. Commentators in the early 1900s would have been surprised by all that money being
spent on leisure, and especially by the idea that time off is being enjoyed by the poor as
well as the rich: no work at weekends, holidays at all, let alone abroad. But they would
have been most surprised that, once ordinary folks’ basic needs were covered, they
carried on working hard.
In his book “In
Praise of Idleness”, Bertrand Russell wrote in 1935: “The idea that the poor
should have leisure has always been shocking to the rich.” But he went on to argue
that: “Only a foolish asceticism...makes us continue to...work in excessive
quantities now that the need no longer exists.”
John Maynard Keynes would also have been surprised. In “Economic
Possibilities for Our Grandchildren”, written to brighten up the gloomy days of
1930, he forecast that 100 years from then we would be eight times better off in economic
terms (which has already happened), and that this would mean the long struggle to produce
enough to meet basic needs would at last be over. The majority would then work for only 15
hours or so a week. A few would work harder, in pursuit of wealth. But most would not,
seeing the love of money as “one of those semi-criminal, semi-pathological
propensities”.
He was wrong, and most do not see money in that way. Why not? To want more than
you have, whether in monetary or other terms, is a basic human instinct. As they sang in
“South Pacific”, if you don’t have a dream, how can you have a dream come
true? But also, work has a value beyond providing a living, and that applies to humbler
occupations as well as the high-brow. The view held by Russell and Keynes, and echoed by
Hannah Arendt in “The Human Condition” in the 1950s, that human beings are
really frustrated philosophers, keen to spend time in contemplation, has proved to be
bunkum. After all, to those writers contemplation was not leisure; it was their work.
Are people happy amid all this plenty? Andrew Oswald, an economics professor at
Warwick University in Britain who has studied data available for America and Europe, finds
that the most extreme indicators of unhappiness—suicide or attempted
suicide—show a clear fall in the rich countries in proportion to the population. In
1911, he says, 2,600 men in England and Wales committed suicide; in 1990, the figure was
2,800, in a much larger population. Less extreme data are less reassuring, however. In
polls, people in both continents say they have become happier in recent decades,
especially in Europe, but everywhere the rise in happiness is a lot smaller than the
increase in wealth.
The most plausible explanations are that relative wealth matters far more than
the absolute sort, and satisfaction is always relative to expectations. “Positional
goods”, i.e., ways to establish your relative status through your car, clothing or
other possessions, become important in a society that is not only affluent but has also
shed the clear social rankings and rigidities that were common in Europe and Japan. Fred
Hirsch, a British economist (and once a writer on The Economist) who coined the term in a
book in 1976, argued that the rise of positional goods would limit growth, since by
definition they had to be scarce. Yet people have proved ingenious at creating ever more
sources of exclusivity.
The importance of relativity is also a big reason why inequality remains a
serious issue even in countries where the poor have video recorders. Rich conservatives
often decry this. But if those plump and prosperous types care about having more than
others, why should it not be legitimate for the poorer people to care a lot about having
less? Still, inequality is at its most potent when it reflects an inequality of
opportunity or access, the sense that there are firm barriers to progress regardless of
effort or merit. That was particularly true in Britain, for example, before mass public
education and the breakdown of hereditary rankings.
Another reason, however, why plenty seems to bring neither happiness nor
relaxation is that luxury has not brought security, except for a lucky few. Indeed, some
think that modern capitalism has increased insecurity, by substituting a heartless
“cash nexus” (i.e., wages) for old ties of faith, family, community or social
position. This is an odd view; in western society at least, social position has always, in
the end, been founded on money. Jane Austen’s novels were about little else. But
perhaps the more that you have, the more you are worried about losing it. Marxists used to
talk of inevitable “crises of capitalism”. They were right in one sense:
capitalism has proved worryingly unstable.
