Will the Internet Supercede Voice, Data & Video for Communications?

Written by Harry Henry, Senior VP and General Manager, InfoBeads
June 4, 1999

Take two of the hottest technology markets today, Internet and communications, and look out over the next decade - how quickly will they impact each other? If you listen to some factions, the Internet is already carrying the bulk of our data traffic, video is moving so fast that it will succumb tomorrow, and we all know that voice is doomed.

Not so fast, say the communications experts. The Center for Telecommunications Management has just completed their latest Telecom Outlook Report (they've been doing this since 1987). To produce this research project, they poll 250 leaders from all aspects of the communications industry. Virtually every major company is represented. The polling effort focuses on gathering the most current thoughts and outlook on how various aspects of the communications markets will look over the next 5 and 10 years.

Here's one extract from the current view. The question was posed -- "How much of the total voice, data and video transmission in the United States will be carried over the Internet in the future?" Results for the overall market totals are presented below.

Source: Center for Telecommunications Management

Now, a couple of things jump off the chart here. Most notably, if I'm wearing my "bullish-on-everything-colored-Internet hat" I'd say "these people are way too conservative!! Most of this stuff will be handled across the Internet" There are a couple of market forces that push against this -- regulatory agencies and FCC rulings.  These factors will have a big say in what happens - wireless options command everyone's attention in this market, the existing infrastructure and business models of the communications giants still drive the market, and finally the drive for conversion with cable companies add another dimension.

On the other hand ...... who would have thought that the Internet would have such a huge impact in other markets and cause some major disruption of existing businesses. Anything is possible. And 10 years from now is an eternity in this space.

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