Robots are back in the
future
By Brad Liston, Reuters
November 11, 1999 10:34 AM PT
No longer are robots being
relegated to the factory floors of car makers. With the age of the
Internet, the mechanical marvels are finding new life.
ORLANDO, Fla. -- Once robots were the
wave of the future, not only in science fiction but in industry,
especially after the first utilitarian drones -- tireless and
precise, cost-effective and uncomplaining -- arrived on the floors
of automobile plants.
That was decades ago. Later, the
future arrived, but robots remained on the shop floor, dullards that
never evolved into the perfect servants who, as imagined by science
fiction writers such as Isaac Asimov and Ray Bradbury, would
interact with ordinary people throughout the day -- at home, while
commuting or shopping, and in a variety of workplace settings.
Instead, the Internet became the
herald of a new age and robots seemed like a relic of the industrial
past.
"In the early '80s there were
some unrealistic expectations. The industry overestimated what a
robot could do," said Donald Vincent, executive vice president
of the Robotic Industries Association, which hosted a recent seminar
in Orlando. "For the most part a robot today is still a machine
that mounts to the floor, but the industrial uses are growing.
Robots aren't just in the automobile industry anymore."
Probably 75 percent of the robots
in the United States 10 years ago were in auto plants. Today, with
about 95,000 robots at work, that has shrunk to 50 percent, and
Vincent predicts that in another decade car-making will account for
as little as 30 percent of robot use.
The robot revolution -- in 10
years
Today's growth fields for robots
are electronics and pharmaceuticals. And tomorrow? Look for robots
right where you always expected them to be.
In 10 years, the butcher who cuts
your steak could be a robot. The baker who decorates your wedding
cake -- a robot. And the candlestick maker? Forget about it.
Your heart surgeon could also be a
robot. At least one company, Computer Motion, is designing patient
pods, operating tables with laser-wielding robot arms controlled by
a surgeon calling the shots from a control console.
A number of factors are driving
this robot renaissance, the experts say. The most important is the
same thing that pushed the Internet to the center of world
attention: software.
For years, every company in the
field essentially designed its own proprietary operating system for
its robots, a time-consuming and inefficient practice that slowed
the development of new products. Now the trend is toward common
operating systems like Windows NT, made by Microsoft Corp.
"Windows may not be perfect
but it works, it's flexible. There are plenty of experienced
users," said Everette Phillips, who manages advanced
manufacturing technologies for Seiko Instruments USA.
Software advancements also give
potential robotics users the ability to test their plans in virtual
reality before investing millions in robots, adding to customer
confidence.
Knives for butcher bots
Koorosh Khodabandehloo, a robotics
consultant who has run pilot programs in the European meat industry,
needed that kind of simulation to decide whether robot butchers
would be better armed with knives, lasers or water jets. Investment
would have been prohibitive had he picked the wrong tool.
"We settled on knives and
circular saws," he said. "A knife has the advantage of
being a manipulating tool as well as a cutting tool."
The meat industry is just one
example of the non-traditional areas where robotics is expected to
grow.
In Europe, meat packing has the
second highest accident rate next to construction, Khodabandehloo
said. And butchers are expected to work long periods in cold storage
areas.
"Labor is hard to get,"
he said. "Turnover is high. Often it takes two months to train
someone who finds the work intolerable after six months. Robots
don't care."
Labor shortages also affect
shopping malls, so it may not be long before the clerk at your local
music store will be a robot who can complete a credit card
transaction, bag your CDs and tell you to have a nice day.
Mobility and smarts
Meanwhile, work continues in other
areas such as robot mobility and artificial intelligence. Advances
are expected in both.
"The robot we see right now
probably won't be called a robot 30 years from now," said
Kazuhiko Kawamura, head of the Intelligent Robotics Laboratory at
Vanderbilt University.
He and other experts predict the
development of smarter, more mobile versions that could be called
humanoid robots, if not for their looks at least for their ability
to interact with humans. One firm, HelpMate Robotics Inc., is
working on a line of household robots that are two-armed, sensate
and articulate servant-companions for the elderly.
But what about truly humanoid
robots, androids like Data from Star Trek or, at least, Robbie the
Robot from "Forbidden Planet," the classic sci-fi film?
"We don't want robots we'll
hate or fall in love with. We already have enough trouble relating
to other people," said John McCarthy, a pioneer in artificial
intelligence and co-founder of the MIT Artificial Intelligence
Laboratory. "But I don't see why we can't program them to be
ethical -- maybe more ethical than we are."
"Someday we'll find a way to
make them smart and then they'll very quickly become smarter than
us," said Marvin Minsky, another MIT professor who is often
called the father of artificial intelligence.
"What happens then is anyone's
guess."
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